It’s Hurricane Season!

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated to be extremely active, with NOAA predicting between 17 and 25 named storms. Of these, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and 4 to 7 could escalate into major hurricanes with winds of at least 115 mph​. This forecast is influenced by several climate factors, including the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions, which typically enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic​.

Key contributing factors include unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which provide more energy for storm development​ (NOAA)​. The potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can generate powerful storm systems, also adds to the forecasted activity​ (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)​. These conditions align with historical patterns observed during previous high-activity years, such as 1998 and 2020, both of which saw significant hurricane activity​.

Overall, there is an 85% chance of an above-average season, marking it as potentially hyperactive​​. NOAA is also implementing enhanced forecast tools and communication strategies to better prepare and inform the public, including an experimental forecast cone graphic that includes inland hazard warnings​. As always, regardless of seasonal predictions, preparedness and vigilance remain crucial for those in hurricane-prone areas.